The Climate Change and Human Conflict Correlation
Both human conflict and climate change have forcibly displaced millions of people. By the end of 2021, 89.3 million people worldwide had been displaced due to conflict and violence, the highest in over 75 years. Meanwhile, climate change is “widespread, rapid, and intensifying.” This begs the question, is there a correlation between the two?
The Risk Multiplier
It is believed that climate change and conflict indirectly influence one another. 90% of refugees under the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) are originally from countries at the forefront of climate change’s consequences. 70% of the most climate vulnerable countries are also politically and economically vulnerable. Pakistan is one of the most recent examples of this, with heavy monsoon flooding affecting more than 33 million people.
Climate change increases the risk of conflict in a number of ways. It reduces the amount of available land through rising desertification, sea levels and urbanization; acts as a key driver for food insecurity; reduces access to health and housing; and increases the risk of water weaponization (defined as: using water “as a strategic or tactical weapon or as a means to terrorize, coerce, and subjugate local populations”). Furthermore, climate change deepens already existent social inequities— including racial and economic inequities—amplifying climate vulnerability and conflict.
Conversely, conflict makes countries more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. Conflict reduces their ability for climate adaptation and resilience This is exemplified in the conflict in Ukraine, where war has exacerbated food, energy, and climate crises. Evidence also suggests that countries in conflict receive less climate-related finance, further impairing opportunities for climate adaptation and mitigation..
Overall, climate change and human conflict both indirectly worsen one another. Darfur, Sudan, is commonly described as the “first climate change conflict”, due to the impact of environmental factors (such as drought), which caused food insecurity for almost 5 million people. Given the current trajectory of climate change, it is likely that there will be increasing convergence between environmental degradation and human conflict. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the United Nations (UN) are concerned that climate change may undo the progress made in reducing deaths from war, and conflicts becoming less deadly. It is becoming increasingly evident that climate change is intrinsically linked to a new generation of conflict. Thus, we must confront the climate crisis if we hope to also reduce human conflict.
