Winter is Coming…Eventually

Every February, a small town in Pennsylvania hosts a quirky tradition involving a furry friend to predict the seasonal fate of the country: Groundhog Day. This year, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter. However, along the East Coast of the United States, wintertime seems to be as much of a fable as the origins of Groundhog Day, with more sunny days and less snowfall each year. Winter seems to be getting warmer, as parts of the United States are recording over seven days of winter temperatures above normal compared to levels in 1970. Though they may only be pockets of warm weather, these higher temperatures are more frequently making an appearance due to climate change, with the unseasonable heat causing problems that span across public health, agriculture, and water supplies. What kind of changes are happening, and why does the Earth need winter? 

Public Health 

Milder winters have a noticeable impact on human health through elongated allergy seasons. In February 2023, states along the eastern seaboard have already broken winter temperature records, ranging from the high 60s in New England to the low 80s in the Carolinas, prompting a rise in CO2 levels. Rising winter temperatures act as a cue for plants, trees, and grasses to produce pollen earlier in the season, mimicking springtime conditions that pose risks for over 20 million allergy-prone Americans.  

Pollen acts as an intruder within the immune system, prompting the production of antibodies and histamine to fight off pollen molecules. As histamine causes an inflammatory reaction within the body, various symptoms manifest, including sneezing, itchy eyes, and an irritated throat. For people with asthma, tiny pollen molecules can lodge themselves into the lungs and cause breathing difficulties. Studies have shown that the earlier onset of spring is strongly associated with increased asthma hospitalizations in areas with abnormally high pollen counts.  

Agriculture 

Since 2016, the United States has recorded its warmest winters, leading to disruptions in industries such as agriculture. Many crops require a “winter chill” period for proper growth; warmer weather, however, produces fewer yields resulting from disrupted chill periods and fewer pollinating insects that are synced to new crop growth cycles. As crops are triggered to come out of hibernation early, they may experience frost damage, stunted growth, or contract destructive pathogens that thrive in warmer weather.  

Cold weather also decreases the survival rate for crop destroying insects, which serves as a natural pest control. With milder winters, the risk of multiple generations reproducing during a single season increases as weather conditions become agreeable. Farmers are forced to use more pesticides to combat this overgrowth of insects, which have carcinogenic effects if they remain on edible crops. Wintertime is also crucial for soil health, where cold temperatures soften soil and reduce compaction, promoting root expansion, even water distribution, and nitrogen preservation needed for growth. 

Water Supplies 

A snowless winter could mean trouble for water supplies. Without snowpack, water becomes scarce for local reservoirs that help water crops and meet water demands in warmer months. For climate scientists, warmer winters mean a higher risk of flooding, as more rain will fall than can be absorbed. Excess runoff can also pick up hazardous chemicals or waste that can harm water supplies, polluting ecosystems that humans and animals depend on.  

Warmer winters can rattle precipitation cycles by changing the temperature of bodies of water that impact where, when, and how much snow or rain a region may receive. Instances of “lake effect snow,” or when cold air passes over warm lake temperatures causing extreme snowfall, could be seen in the historic December 2022 Buffalo snowstorm that dumped nearly 52 inches of snow and killed 39 people. 

Why Winter? 

Out of the four seasons, winter is warming up the fastest. While summer lovers may be rejoicing at the thought of not having to pick up a shovel (so far), winter is an important season to maintain planetary equilibrium. From a macro level, snowfall is needed to regulate the earth’s temperatures, weather patterns, and how much sunlight is reflected back into the atmosphere to cool the planet. At a micro level, risks to human health have increased as the ecosystems that maintain health, such as water reservoirs, farms, and areas with clean air quality, are threatened by climate change’s impact on winter temperatures. While winter still brings chilly blasts, the shadow of climate change lingers in the warm winter sun.