The Future is Electric: California Places Ban on the Sale of Gasoline-Powered Vehicles After 2035

As late as 2012, a polluted smog hung over the city of Los Angeles. Largely caused by transportation-related emissions and having plagued the city as early as 1943, this smog has become synonymous with Los Angeles itself.  

Fast-forward to today, and as of August 26th, 2022, the State of California has taken steps to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles after 2035, a major step in reducing greenhouse gas emissions overall.  

In its Advanced Clean Cars II rule, the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which is responsible for a host of emissions-related outcomes for the state, said, “All new passenger cars, trucks and SUVs sold in California will be zero emissions.” This will essentially eliminate the gas-powered vehicle as an option for consumers. California will explore and encourage a wide array of technologies, including electric (EV), plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell batteries. CARB indicates that the state holds the highest percentage of zero-emission vehicles at 16%. 

Why does California matter when it comes to regulations? The most obvious reason is that California has one of the largest vehicle-driving populations in the country (1 in 33 Americans live in Los Angeles County alone, and the cities of San Francisco and LA individually have more vehicles per person, though less population, than NYC). Additionally, other states have adopted regulations first put forth by California in the past, from reducing the flammability of couches to regulating cryptocurrency. California often serves as a model for other states to follow – previous emissions regulations were adopted by 17 other states, which have come to be known as “CARB States.”  

These new emission standards exist hand-in-hand with market-driven transitions in the auto industry. General Motors, one of the “Big Three” auto manufacturers in the US, plans to produce only electric vehicles by 2035, which aligns with CARB’s regulation. Seeing the market shifting, other auto manufacturers plan to include EVs in their future: almost all will begin to produce electric versions of their current line-up or introduce new EV models. Ford even announced an EV version of its F-150, the best-selling pick-up truck in the country.  

Central to this transition will be provisions made in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, which includes tax credits for individuals purchasing EVs. Consumers could expect to receive up to $7,500 toward the purchase of a new electric vehicle under the legislation.  

However, there are challenges facing the electrification of America’s vehicles. One major consideration is the lack of a universal charging option. At this stage, the limited range of some EVs requires planning out stops along a route to charge the vehicle. Some businesses offer to charge stations in their parking lots, but consumers complain of a lack of compatibility with their car as well as consistently broken stations. Additionally, most rural areas do not have charging options whatsoever, preventing people in such areas from purchasing an EV. 

Affordability is another hurdle. EVs cost significantly more than their gas-powered cousins, making it difficult for many consumers to make the switch—especially at a time of nationwide inflation. 

Yet another challenge is the increased demand for rare metals required to create the vehicles’ batteries. Lithium, cobalt, and nickel are some of the key minerals required for battery manufacturing, which are all associated with a supply largely dominated by China. While not home to natural deposits of these minerals, the country has positioned itself to be the main processor of the metals, effectively controlling the global supply. Experts and economists warn of dependence on the country for energy in the future, similar to the US’s previous oil dependence on other nations.  

Another issue is that of supply. As previously stated, most auto manufacturers plan to move to large-scale EV production. The need for minerals will increase exponentially if all of these manufacturers plan to expand at the same time.  

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it is clear that a transition to EVs needs to be a part of the equation. The sheer quantity of greenhouse gases that can be reduced by eliminating vehicle emissions will go a long way to reaching climate goals and ensuring a stable environmental future. Still, the transition is not straight-forward. States and nations will have to work together in order for a shift to Electric vehicles to be effective and lasting.